A 5% move

We are watching the area 3640 and sold 3500 under the analysis that we will not reach it

Headwinds ahead

SPY has to move above 1171 and NASDAQ above 2405 and consolidate at that area for a while before things start getting rosy again...

When will the misery end part -2

Back in March 2009 we had posted http://indusglobal.blogspot.com/2009/03/when-will-misery-end.html

What is the situation after a year now...Nonfarm payrolls increased by 290,000 in April. The economy has lost 1.4 million jobs over the last year, and 7.8 million jobs since the recession started in December 2007. That puts the percent job loses at roughly 5.5%. The unemployment rate increased to 9.9 percent.

We will have to see at the end of this year what will be the total job gains? Broad Market is now at 1100 levels while it was around 700 at that time.

Where do we go from here?

The much expected correction has finally arrived. Whether you have been diligent enough to prepare for this is a different discussion altogether. We at IGIR had expected to move up in a mellowed way but the things that happened in later march till late April were sort of crazy. Since things were up unexpectedly we were also caught on the wrong side with some positions but we did not liquidate the positions in an anticipation of a move.

Now this move has been more jerky that we had thought it to be. These situations are very tricky and dangerous. The question is where do we go from here....

Most of May will be down and consolidation begins in June. By Mid June we should have found a new ground and then we can move back up from there. The fundamentals of the economy are all OK and we do not think this is the end of the road here. This was technically the last leg in the first wave that started in March of 2009. The ground level of this turmoil will decide the pivot for the next wave.

We expect to hold 106 as was pointed in the old post but 1014 is really the key level longer term. If that is broken then that is really bearish. After that 948 is the next stop which is a 50% pullback from 1222. 883 would be the nullification of the previous wave and 675 would take us back to the original step. We do not expect to break 1014 however at IGIR we firmly believe that markets can usually prove you wrong when you think you can predict them. 

Like all customers, Mr. Market is always right and he usually wants to tell you something....Preparing to listen is for your own benefit rather than his.

5,1

Back in March we had established a level of 110 and we wanted to hold that for a while instead we saw a rush towards 115 and then 122 which was crazy. The move down was expected and here we have it now with two down 600 M days. We have been covering our positions slowly since we had a lot of baggage that was caught up in the run-up towards 122.

The breach below 110 will not be good at all. 108 is the next level followed by 106 which is the mos sacred if this market has to end higher at the end of FY2010.

Playing Catch-up

Are all the new User Interface frameworks playing catch-up with iPhone and Android?

Seems like everyone is into the business of making an Mobile UI SDK these days. We have heard Nokia's new Qt, Samsung's Bada and a few others who have been around for a long time but failed to excite developers.

We believe that all these are trying to play a losers game now. Nokia being the behemoth in terms of phones out there may see some action in their framework but all others are doomed.