Monday, July 30, 2007

Understanding the Rupee being fully convertible now

There has been plenty of hype over the possibility of the Indian rupee becoming fully convertible after Prime Minister Manmohan Singh recently suggested that the Reserve Bank of India as the central bank of the country look at the modalities for such a radical measure.

The Prime Minister did not specify a time frame. That has been left to an expert committee appointed by the RBI under the chairmanship of S. S. Tarapore. It is expected that the committee will take four months to submit its report and a road map. Hence there is no reason at all to rush to a conclusion that full convertibility of the rupee is round the corner.

It is important to note that full convertibility is a gradual process, given our present state of integration with the outside world.

Current account

There has already been a substantial relaxation of foreign exchange controls: the rupee has been convertible on the current account since 1994. Resident Indians and companies now have access to foreign exchange for a variety of purposes, including education and travel. They can receive and make payments in foreign currencies on trade account.

Full convertibility means that restrictions on capital account too will be withdrawn. This basically implies that domestic assets — real estate and shares — can be sold to foreigners and payments received without previous regulatory clearance. There will also be a corresponding right for foreigners — not just non-resident Indians — to invest in Indian assets.

Earlier moves

Already there have been substantial moves in the direction of full convertibility. The stock markets have been fuelled by foreign money, which comes in through registered institutional investors. Many categories of resident Indians have been allowed to open foreign currency accounts abroad. India companies have been making overseas acquisitions for which they have given generous access to foreign currency resources.

In practice there can never be a situation where capital moves across national borders totally unhindered by controls. Full convertibility implies fewer but not a complete dismantling of controls. Even developed countries such as the U.S. restrict investments in specific sectors. In India too, it has never been easy even for non-resident Indians (who have enjoyed substantial capital account convertibility for long) to acquire property and real estate. Then again in India, there are caps on foreign direct investment (FDI). It is fanciful to think that all these will be scrapped to permit unrestricted capital flows only to prove that a full convertibility regime has arrived.

Monitoring remittances

Recent steps to check money laundering and the necessity to verify customers' credentials (Know Your Customer rules) have forced banks to monitor remittances into the country. There is no way a full convertibility regime can dispense with those.

One relevant point missed out in the debate over convertibility is this: whether the rupee is convertible or not depends as much on outsiders' preference to hold the currency as on the willingness of the national monetary authorities to "let go". Simply stated, it is not enough if the RBI decrees that the rupee is convertible. There must be demand for the rupee from a variety of legitimate sources — those engaged in trade, investment and so on. Part of the requirements for the rupee need not even be for India-specific transactions.

Debt market needs depth

And demand implies adequate supply of the currency and the infrastructure to cope with the new full convertible status. There should be an active rupee market outside India, a bond market and a facility to hedge rupee transactions over long time frames.

At present there is a felt need within India for a debt market with depth. The latest budget has increased the cap on FII investment in debt securities but compared to the booming equity markets the debt market in India is unlikely to attract anywhere near the same levels of foreign investment even if the rupee becomes convertible on capital account too.

Pertinently, the rupee, although an approved currency in the invoicing of imports and exports, is far less popular compared to the hard currencies, especially the dollar.

Don't ignore the flip side

It is also possible that speculators will take larger bets on the rupee in a full convertibility regime. In fact there are far too many points against full convertibility, even if it could be achieved in the near future.

The exchange rate policy in India, involving a managed float, has been emulated by many other developing countries. It has ensured reasonable stability of the exchange rate and to the extent possible discouraged speculative activity. A full convertibility regime would automatically lead to an exchange rate system in which the rupee will float freely against other currencies.

The benefits claimed — a free flow of capital both ways (to and from India) optimising returns to investors and giving a major boost to the financial markets — are realisable only if all imperfections, not only in India but also in the developed countries, are removed.

Far more likely, there will not only be increased volatility — inevitable perhaps even in the present system of a managed float — but financial instability. As the Indian economy gets more connected with the outside world, it will not be possible to insulate it from outside shocks. Full convertibility, implying no restrictions whatsoever on the movement of currency and capital, is the end result of globalisation. It might be a statement of economic confidence but the path towards it has to be well considered. Needless to add, full convertibility will be beneficial only if the domestic economy is put in good shape first. The expert group working on a roadmap will surely stress the same points favouring macroeconomic consolidation which an earlier committee — also under Mr. Tarapore — had set out in May 1997.

It is worth recapitulating its recommendations if only to show that the path towards convertibility cannot be as smooth as it is assumed. Second, since the major goals set in 1997 (to be reached over the next three years) have not been reached even now, it is evident that there cannot be a compressed time frame.

The Hindu. (C. R. L. NARASIMHAN)


Historical Issues for Convertability

In the year 1990-91 balance of payments position facing the country became critical and foreign exchange reserves had been depleted to dangerously low levels. Imports had to be severely curtailed in the course 1990-91 because of shortage of foreign exchange. Importers were asked to deposit an amount equal to 200% of the L.C. value with Banks in advance to be eligible for getting the L.Cs opened. This affected the availability of many essential items and also led to distinct slow down of industrial growth.

The urgent need of the hour was assessed as under:-

1.

To aim at quick revival of the momentum of exports.
2.

To create strong incentives to economise on imports, without resorting to proliferation of licensing controls, which promote delay and inefficiency, generate arbitrariness and stifle enterprise.
3.

There was urgent need to create an environment free from Bureaucratic controls in which our exporters will be able to respond with speed and flexibility to changing international conditions.
4.

To recognise the change that is taking place in the world economy, where countries are shedding isolation ands getting increasingly integrated, and to shape our economic policies as part of the prevailing global environment.

Government announced an initial package of trade policy reforms on 4th July 1991. Its main features are as under:

1.

Essential imports such as POL and fertilizers were fully protected.
2.

Import of other raw materials and components were linked to export performance through an enlargement and restructuring of the replenishment licensing system.
3.

A tradeable Exim Scrip allowing for free foreign exchange for import of goods up to 30% of the F.O.B. export value was allowed to exporters. These scrips were freely tradable in the open market, which fetched about 30% premium to the exporters.
4.

Government abolished cash compensatory support for exporters.
5.

Licensing complexities were reduced.
6.

In view of procedural anomalies the Exim Scrip system was subsequently withdrawn and Government announced partial convertibility of the rupee in the Central Budget for 1992-93 by way of a dual exchange system, which allowed conversion of 60% of the foreign exchange earnings at the rate determined in the foreign exchange market. The balance 40% foreign exchange was to be surrendered to the Reserve Bank at official exchange rate for financing of essential imports. The exporters were getting a rate equivalent to the weighted average of market rate (for 60%) and official rate (for 40%), while private imports were paid at market rates.
7.

Shortly thereafter in March 1992, the Government announced 100% convertibility on Current Account, under which 100% foreign exchange earnings can be converted at market rates.

After years of administered exchange rate full convertibility came to India. A fully convertible currency provides freedom to both residents and non-residents to trade in goods, services and assets, thereby, integrates the domestic economy into the world economy. Convertibility in current account along with trade liberalization measures are bound to enhance competitiveness of domestic tradables and make world prices to prevail in the domestic economy. Convertibility measures that accompany the easing of controls on foreign investment and capital inflows are expected to boost technology transfers and enhance productive growth of the domestic economic distortions of an otherwise inward looking trade regime.

The rupee convertibility process has thus been implemented since July 1991, involving several important elements as under:

1.

The relaxation of QR (Quantitative Restrictions) Regime involving import quotas and licensing.
2.

The reduction of the level and dispersions of import tariff rates
3.

The elimination of several export subsidization schemes;
4.

The liberalization of exchange restrictions on capital inflows, particularly the inflow the foreign direct and portfolio investments, and
5.

The introduction of market driven exchange rates of the rupee, instead of administered system through the mechanism of basket peg

Full convertibility of the currency does not prevent our discretion to protect our essential trade interests. Generally countries with currency convertibility have practiced various degree of controls to suit national interests from time to time. Full convertibility does not mean the unrestricted use of rupee for all types of external transactions. All transactions are still conducted within the framework of exchange controls, as prescribed by the R.B.I. On trade account and on account of the receipt side of the invisible, the rupee is fully convertible at market determined exchange rates. The payment side of the invisible and receipts and payment of capital account are subject to exchange control. However exchange rate for all these permissible transactions are undertaken at free market exchange rates.
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2.Define "Convertibility"

In a strict sense a currency can be considered convertible, only if both residents and non-residents have full freedom to use and exchange it for any purpose whatsoever, at some definite rate of exchange. However in practice large number of currencies are considered convertible with various degrees of restrictions and controls.

The International Monetary Fund provides a working definition of convertibility under Article VIII, which states as under:-

“No member shall, without the approval of the fund, impose restrictions on making of payment and transfers for current transactions.”

The IMF concept considers convertibility only for current account transactions, thus leaving at the discretion of the country to regulate flows on capital account. Generally countries with currency convertibility have practised various degree of controls to suit their national interests from time to time. Thus currency convertibility implies absence of restrictions on foreign exchange transactions and not necessarily on trade or capital flow. This point has been clarified properly by IMF, which states as under:-

“Thus, although measure formulated as quantitative limitation on imports will have the indirect effect, it is not for that reason a restriction on payments within the meaning of the provision…Restrictions on trade do not become restrictions on payment within the meaning of Article VIII, because they are imposed for balance of payments reasons”.

Under the present floating system, exporters can realise their entire export earnings at the free market rate. All imports, including the Government imports consisting of petroleum, food, fertilizers and defence have to be paid at free market rates. The substance of convertibility efforts is to dispense with the discretionary management of foreign exchange and exchange rates and to adopt a more liberal and market driven exchange allocation process. It needs to be noted that here that the full convertibility does not mean the unrestricted use of the rupee for all types of India’s external transactions. All transactions are still conducted within the framework of exchange controls, as prescribed by the R.B.I.

The full convertibility features are LERMS (Liberalized Exchange Control Management System) and its main features are summarised as under:-

*

The exchange rates of the rupee are determined by the free market forces of demand and supply. Free market rates are quoted by authorised dealers (ADs).
*

Like any other market prices, the exchange rates both spot and forward can vary within a day, between days and even around medium term rend.
*

All commercial transactions in the current account and capital account are undertaken at the free-market driven rates, whether on government or private account.
*

Foreign exchange remittances abroad are subject to exchange control regulations although the AD can remit in many areas upto certain amounts without Reserve Bank’s permission. This implies full convertibility is not applicable to the invisible trade.
*

All export proceeds and inward remittances need to be surrendered with a 156% retention option in a foreign currency account with the AD.
*

The intervention currency continues to be U.S. dollar, which the Reserve Bank can buy and sell from and to the Ads at its discretion. This route can provide temporary stability in the exchange markets.
*

The Reserve Bank provides two way quotes of the U.S. Dollar, which can change several times in a day, depending on market pressures.
*

The Reserve Bank will not ordinarily buy or sell any other currency, either spot ort forward; rather will undertake swap transactions with the Ads. A swap involves the Reserve Bank buying the U.S. Dollar spot and selling forward simultaneously for delivery in two to six months.
*

The RBI will sell U.S. Dollars to the AD at the market rate, for debt service payments on Government Account and other payments, only a transitory arrangement, such as for meeting 40% value of imports under advance licences, special import licences, REP licences for import of raw materials, gems and jewellery exports, and for meeting the full value of imports under the outstanding EXIM scrips and such other licences treated on part with these scrips.
*

For trade with Russian Republics where the invoicing is in freely convertible currency the market related exchange rate are applicable.
*

Transactions routed through the ACU arrangement (except those settled in the Indian rupees) will be based on Reserve Bank’s rate for ACU currencies and for the Asian Monetary Unit.

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3. What do you understand by the term “Current Account” and “Capital Account” Convertibility?

Current account includes all transactions, which give rise to or use of our National income, while Capital Account consist of short term and long term capital transactions.

Current Account Transactions covers the following.

1.

All imports and exports of merchandise
2.

Invisible Exports and Imports (sale/purchase of services)
3.

Inward private remittances to & fro
4.

Pension payments (to & fro)
5.

Government Grants (both ways)

Capital Account transactions consist of the following:

1.

Direct Foreign Investments (both inward & outward)
2.

Investment in securities (both ways)
3.

Other Investments (both ways)
4.

Government Loans (both ways)
5.

Short-term investments on both directions

The substance of convertibility is to dispense with the discretionary management of foreign exchange and exchange rates and to adopt a more liberal and market driven exchange allocation process. All transactions are still conducted within the framework of exchange controls, as prescribed by the RBI. Full convertibility on current account is manifested as below:

*

On trade account and on account of the receipt side of the invisibles, the rupee is fully convertible at market determined exchange rates
*

The payment side of the invisible and receipts and payments of capital account are subject to exchange control.
*

However, exchange rates for all these permissible transactions are undertaken at the free market exchange rates.

Capital Account is deemed convertible when residents and non-residents are allowed to effect such transactions without any restrictions i.e. without prior permission of the RBI. In such a context without any restrictions Indians should be able to secured foreign direct investment from abroad. Foreigners at their discretion should be able to make portfolio investments in this country. Presently these transactions are subject to prior permission of R.B.I. However R.B.I. is following a constructive and promotional approach and encouraging foreign investments in India. Indian Industrialist having good projects for direct foreign investment or foreign institutional investors desiring to make portfolio investments in this country are encouraged and they do not face problems on account of exchange control by R.B.I. Exchange control is limited to exchange monitoring.

Source: http://www.geocities.com/kstability/index.html

Friday, July 13, 2007

1900s

1919


1922

1923


1924


1925


1926

1927

1928

1929
1930
January 26 - The Indian National Congress declares 26th January as Independence Day or as the day for Poorna Swaraj (Complete Independence).
March 2 - Mahatma Gandhi informs British viceroy of India that civil disobedience would begin nine days later
May 4/May 5 - Mahatma Gandhi is arrested again.
December 28 - Mohandas Gandhi leaves for Britain for negotiations.
December 29 - Sir Muhammad Iqbal's presidential address in Allahabad introduces the Two-Nation Theory and outlines a vision for the creation of Pakistan.


1931
January 25 - Mohandas Gandhi released again.
February 10 - New Delhi becomes the capital of India.
February 20 - California gets the go-ahead by the U.S. Congress to build the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge.
March 4 - British viceroy of India and Mohandas Gandhi negotiate.
March 23 - Revolt for Independent India leaders Bhagat Singh, Rajguru and Sukhdev are hanged by the British Government.
May 1 - Construction of the Empire State Building is completed in New York City.

1932


1933
January 5 - Construction of the Golden Gate Bridge begins in San Francisco Bay.
January 28 - The word Pakistan for the first time in history comes into being and is recognized by the Pakistan Movement to press for freedom.
March 2 - The original film version of King Kong
March 4 - American President Herbert Clark Hoover is succeeded by Franklin D. Roosevelt, who in reference to the Great Depression, gives his "The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself" inauguration speech
March 12 - Great Depression: Franklin Delano Roosevelt addresses the nation for the first time as President of the United States. This was also the first of his "Fireside Chats".
May 8 - Mohandas Gandhi begins a 3-week hunger strike because of the mistreatment of the lower castes
May 18 - New Deal: President Franklin Delano Roosevelt signs an act creating the Tennessee Valley Authority.
June 5 - The U.S. Congress abrogates the United States' use of the gold standard by enacting a joint resolution (48 Stat. 112) nullifying the right of creditors to demand payment in gold.
October 17 - Albert Einstein arrives in the United States as a refugee from Nazi Germany.
November 8 - Great Depression: New Deal - US President Franklin D. Roosevelt unveils the Civil Works Administration, an organization designed to create jobs for more than 4 million of the unemployed.


1934
June 6 - New Deal: U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt signs the Securities Exchange Act into law, establishing the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
December 27 - Persia becomes Iran


1935
March 16 - Adolf Hitler announces German rearmament in violation of the Versailles Treaty.
May 6 - New Deal: Executive Order 7034 creates the Works Progress Administration
August 14 - United States President Franklin Roosevelt signs Social Security Act into law.
September 30 - U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt dedicates Hoover Dam

1936
March 7 - In violation of the Treaty of Versailles, Nazi Germany reoccupies the Rhineland.
May 12 - The Santa Fe railroad in the United States inaugurates the all-Pullman Super Chief passenger train between Chicago, Illinois and Los Angeles, California.
November 3 - U.S. presidential election, 1936: Franklin D. Roosevelt is reelected to a second term in a landslide victory over Alf Landon.
November 12 - In California, the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge opens to traffic.

1937
January 20 - Chief Justice Charles Evans Hughes swears in US. President Franklin D. Roosevelt for a second term. This is the first time Inauguration Day in the United States occurred on that date. It has occurred on January 20 ever since.
February 5 - President Franklin D. Roosevelt proposes a plan to enlarge the Supreme Court of the United States
May 27 - In California, the Golden Gate Bridge opens to pedestrian traffic creating a vital link between San Francisco and Marin County. The next day, President Franklin D. Roosevelt pushes a button in Washington, DC signaling the start of vehicle traffic over the Golden Gate Bridge.
July 22 - New Deal: The United States Senate votes down President Franklin D. Roosevelt's proposal to add more justices to the Supreme Court of the United States.


1938
January 27 - The Niagara Bridge at Niagara Falls, New York collapses due to an ice jam.
March 3 - Oil is discovered in Saudi Arabia.
February 24 - A nylon bristle toothbrush becomes the first commercial product to be made with nylon yarn.
October 16 - Winston Churchill, in a broadcast address to the United States, condemns the Munich Agreement as a defeat and calls upon America and western Europe to prepare for armed resistance against Hitler.
October 31 - Great Depression: In an effort to try restore investor confidence, the New York Stock Exchange unveils a fifteen-point program aimed to upgrade protection for the investing public.


1939
January 1 - The Hewlett-Packard Company was founded.
July 6 - Holocaust: The last remaining Jewish enterprises in Germany are closed
August 2 - Albert Einstein writes President Franklin Roosevelt about developing the Atomic Bomb using Uranium. This led to the creation of the Manhattan Project.
September 1 - WWII: Nazi Germany invades Poland, beginning the Second World War in Europe.'
October 11 - Manhattan Project: US President Franklin D. Roosevelt is presented with a letter signed by Albert Einstein urging the United States to rapidly develop the atomic bomb.
December 2 - La Guardia Airport opens for business in New York City.
Nuclear fission discovered independently by Lise Meitner and Otto Hahn.


1940
May 15 - McDonald's founded.
November 5 - U.S. presidential election, 1940: Democrat incumbent Franklin D. Roosevelt defeats Republican challenger Wendell Willkie and becomes the United States' first third-term president.
December 29 - Franklin D. Roosevelt, in a fireside chat to the nation, declares that the United States must become, "... the great arsenal of democracy."
December 30 - California's first modern freeway, the future California State Route 110, is opened to traffic in Pasadena, California, as the Arroyo Seco Parkway. It is now called the Pasadena Freeway.

1941
January 6 - Franklin Delano Roosevelt delivers his Four Freedoms Speech in the State of the Union Address.
November 17 - WWII: Attack on Pearl Harbor - Joseph Grew, the United States ambassador to Japan, cables the State Department that Japan had plans to launch an attack against Pearl Harbor, Hawaii (his cable was ignored).
December 7, December 8 (in Japan standard time) - Japanese Navy launches a surprise attack consisting of two full regiments on the United States fleet at Pearl Harbor, thus drawing the United States into World War II.


1942
February 9 - Daylight saving time goes into effect in the United States.
October 16 - Hurricane and flooding in Bombay - 40,000 dead.

1943
1944
WWII in full flow

1945
January 20 - Franklin D. Roosevelt is inaugurated to an unprecedented fourth term as President of the United States.
March 1 - Franklin D. Roosevelt gives what will be his last address to a joint session of Congress, reporting on the Yalta Conference
April 12 - United States President Franklin Delano Roosevelt (1933-1945) dies suddenly at Warm Springs, Georgia; Vice President Harry S. Truman (1945-1953) becomes the 33rd President.
May 2 - WWII: The Soviet Union announces the fall of Berlin.
July 21 - WWII: Harry S. Truman approves order for atomic bombs to be used.
September 2 - World War II ends: The final official surrender of Japan
October 24 - United Nations founded.
November 16 - Cold War: The United States controversially imports 88 German scientists to help in the production of rocket technology.
December 27 - Twenty-eight nations sign an agreement creating the World Bank.




1947
July 26 - Cold War: U.S. President Harry S. Truman signs the National Security Act into United States law creating the Central Intelligence Agency, Department of Defense, Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the National Security Council.
July 29 - After being shut off on November 9, 1946 for a refurbishment, ENIAC, one of the world's first digital computers, is turned on after a memory upgrade. It will remain in continuous operation until October 2, 1955.
August 15 - Following decades of Non violent resistance and periodic civil unrest from 1919, India gains independence from the British Empire
November 29 - The United Nations General Assembly votes to partition Palestine between Arabs and Jews.

1948
May 15 - 1948 Arab-Israeli War: Egypt, Transjordan, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Saudi Arabia attack Israel.
June 3 - Palomar Observatory telescope finished in California.
September 12 - Invasion of the State of Hyderabad by the Indian Army on the day after the Pakistani leader Jinnah's death to assist damage control. Operation Polo led to the deaths of an estimated tens of thousands of Hyderabadi Muslims.


1949
April 1 - The Tokyo Stock Exchange is founded.
October 1 - Birth of the People's Republic of China.

1950
January 26 - India promulgates its constitution forming a republic and Rajendra Prasad is sworn in as its first president.
February 12 - Albert Einstein warns that nuclear war could lead to mutual destruction
March 17 - University of California, Berkeley researchers announce the creation of element 98 which they have named "californium".


1952
May 13 - Pandit Nehru forms his first government


1953
January 7 - President Harry S. Truman announces the United States has developed a hydrogen bomb.
January 20 - Change of US presidency from Harry S. Truman (1945-1953) to Dwight D. Eisenhower (1953-1961).
August 8 - Soviet prime minister Georgi Malenkov announces that Soviet Union has a hydrogen bomb
October 30 - Cold War: US President Dwight D. Eisenhower formally approves the top secret document National Security Council Paper No. 162/2, which states that the United States' arsenal of nuclear weapons must be maintained and expanded to counter the communist threat.

1954
November 23 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rises 3.27 points, or 0.86%, closing at an all-time high of 382.74. More significantly, this is the first time the Dow has surpassed its 1929 peak level reached just before that year's crash.


1956
October 31 - Suez Crisis: The United Kingdom and France begin bombing Egypt to force the reopening of the Suez Canal

1957
January 2 - San Francisco and Los Angeles stock exchanges merge to form Pacific Coast Stock Exchange.
January 20 - Dwight D. Eisenhower inaugurated for second term as President of the United States.
March 7 - Congress approves the Eisenhower Doctrine.
March 8 - Egypt re-opens the Suez Canal
March 25 - Treaty of Rome (patto di Roma) establishes the European Economic Community (EEC); see EU.
April 12 - United Kingdom announces that Singapore will gain self rule January 1, 1958.
July 29 - The International Atomic Energy Agency is established.
October 4 - Sputnik program: The Soviet Union launches Sputnik I, the first artificial satellite to orbit the earth.
October 31 - Toyota begins exporting vehicles to the U.S
December 6 - First U.S. attempt to launch a satellite fails, the rocket blowing up on the launch pad


1958
January 31 - The first successful American satellite, Explorer I, is launched into orbit.
February 1 - Egypt and Syria unite to form the United Arab Republic.
March 11 - U.S. B-47 bomber accidentally drops an atom bomb on Mars Bluff, South Carolina.
October 1 - NASA starts operations and replaces the NACA.

1959
February 19 - The United Kingdom grants Cyprus its independence.

1960
February 11 - Twelve Indian soldiers die in clashes with Chinese troops at their common border.
February 13Nuclear testing: France tests its first atomic bomb in the Sahara.
March 6 - Vietnam War: The United States announces that 3,500 American soldiers will be sent to Vietnam.
August 19 - Sputnik program: The Soviet Union launches Sputnik 5, with the dogs Belka and Strelka (Russian for "Squirrel" and "Little Arrow"), 40 mice, 2 rats and a variety of plants. The spacecraft returns to earth the next day and all animals are recovered safely
November 8United States presidential election, 1960: In a close race, John F. Kennedy is elected over Richard M. Nixon, becoming the youngest man elected to that office.
World population: 3,021,475,000


1961
January 20 - John F. Kennedy becomes the 35th President of the United States.
June 25 - Iraqi president Abdul Karim Kassem announces he is going to annex Kuwait.
October 30 - Nuclear testing: The Soviet Union detonates a 58 megaton yield hydrogen bomb known as Tsar Bomba over Novaya Zemlya. It remains the largest ever (man-made) explosion.
November 18 - U.S. President John F. Kennedy sends 18,000 military advisors to South Vietnam.
December 11 - The Vietnam War officially begins, as the first American helicopters arrive in Saigon along with 400 U.S. personnel.
December 17 - India occupies Goa.
December 31 - The Marshall Plan expires, after having distributed more than $12 billion in foreign aid to rebuild Europe.


1962
January 4 - New York City introduces a subway train that operates without a crew on board.
January 9 - Cuba and the Soviet Union sign a trade pact.
February 3 - The U.S. announces its trade embargo against Cuba.
September 21 - A border conflict between China and India erupts into fighting.
October 14 - Cuban Missile Crisis begins: A U-2 flight over Cuba takes photos of Soviet nuclear weapons being installed. A stand-off then ensues the next day between the United States and the Soviet Union, threatening the world with nuclear war.
November 1 - The Soviets begin dismantling their missiles in Cuba.




1971
August 15 - President Richard Nixon announces that the United States will no longer convert dollars to gold at a fixed value, effectively ending the Bretton Woods system. He also imposes a 90-day freeze on wages, prices and rents.
November 15 - Intel releases the world's first microprocessor, the Intel 4004.
December 18 - The U.S. dollar is devalued for the second time in U.S. history.



1973
February 13 - The United States Dollar was devalued by 10%.
March 29 - The last United States soldier leaves Vietnam.
October 17 - The Arab Oil Embargo against several countries which support Israel triggers the 1973 energy crisis.
December 23 - OPEC doubles the price of crude oil


1974
March 18 - Oil embargo crisis: Most OPEC nations end a 5-month oil embargo against the United States, Europe and Japan

Crash of 1929

The 1929 Crash, like the 1987 Crash, was preceded by a market top in late summer. In 1929 the top came on September 4th. As in 1987, the new highs in late summer did not cause much hoopla. The market had been in a strong bull market for years and new highs were almost taken for granted. In fact, the 9/4/29 Wall Street Journal did not even mention the new highs in its "Abreast of the Market" column:

"Considerable profit taking came into the stock market at times yesterday after the triple holiday, but in most instances this supply was absorbed easily. New leaders were brought forward and attracted heavy buying..."

- Wall Street Journal, 9/4/29

Just as in 1987, the day after the top saw a very optimistic quote about the stock market's seeming inexorable advance in the Wall Street Journal:

Although sentiment generally is quite optimistic, it is noted that a large number of commission houses are strongly advising customers to take profits during advances in the stocks being carried. Similar recommendations in the past resulted in clients losing their long position and paying higher prices for their favorite shares, so that it is now admitted that many outsiders are not inclined to follow this advice at the moment. Many are looking for technical corrective reactions from time to time, but do not expect these to disturb the upward trend for any prolonged period.

- Wall Street Journal, 9/4/29

This was one time when those clients should have sold. The DJIA did not return to the 9/3/29 level until November, 1954.

Log vs Linear Scale

There are two common kinds of charts used when presenting a graph of something like a stock price over time. One is linear and the other logarithmic.

Remember that with most such charts, the "X axis" (the horizontal measure) reflects time passed. So it might show you days, or weeks, or months, or years. The "Y axis" (the vertical measure) shows you how the stock price has changed over the given time period. Linear and logarithmic charts differ in their treatment of the Y axis. We'll first explain how the charts differ in their structure, and then why it's good to use log charts.

Linear: With a linear chart, the Y axis is structured in such a way that an equal distance along the axis represents an equal absolute change in stock price. (Gee, that wasn't too clear, was it? Let's try an example.) Shifting up three spaces on the vertical axis might represent a change in stock price from $10 to $13. Shifting up another three spaces further up on the axis might represent a change in stock price from $45 to $48. Three spaces, three dollars. Every time.

Logarithmic: With a logarithmic chart, the Y axis is structured in such a way that an equal distance along it represents an equal *percentage* change. So if you move up three spaces on the vertical axis, that might represent an increase of 15% in the stock price (perhaps from $20 to $23). Shifting up another three spaces further up on the axis will represent another 15% change in the stock price, but this time perhaps from $80 to $92. Note that in the first case, the absolute price change was $3. But further up the axis, the three spaces represented an absolute price change of $12.

An example of a linear chart
An example of a linear chart.
An example of a logarithmic chart
An example of a logarithmic chart.

Now -- why is one kind of chart better than another? Well, imagine a company with a stock price increasing by 15% each year for 20 years. Think about how you'd normally draw a chart of its stock price. You'd probably use a linear chart, as that's what most of us learned to do in school. The graph would show a really curved line, though. It would look like the stock price grew slowly in the first years, and then zoomed up a lot in the last few years.

That's because in the first few years, the change in the stock's price might have been from $10 to $11.50, and later from $25 to $28.75, and later still from $75 to $86.25. So the absolute changes will look small at the beginning, and will look large later on. But it's really just been a steady 15% increase from year to year. (Remember, an investor should be just as happy with a total 50% return from $20 to $30 as from $100 to $150. Investment-wise, percentage-wise, it's the same thing.)

This is why a logarithmic chart is preferable in this situation. If a company is growing at a steady clip, you'll see a fairly straight, upward-sloping line on the graph, not a sharply curving line. If the company's growth is slowing, you'll see the upward slope taper off a bit. If the company keeps growing faster and faster, then you'll see an upward-sloping sharp curve.

Courtesy Fool.com

Dow Jones Demystified

This is a chart of the DJIA for the last 104 years (1897 - 2000). This first chart is on a linear scale.

This chart does not really provide much information. For instance, from 1928 to 1931 the market dropped from 300 to 77.9. This was a huge price drop of 75%, but it barely shows as a tiny blip in the chart. It is dwarfed by the gains made in recent years. That is the nature of a linear chart. But make no mistake, that 75% drop was incredibly painful.

For a more accurate look at very long term charts, you need to look at logarithmic charts. These charts (called log charts for short) are constructed so that similar moves in percentage terms look the same, regardless of the actual price change. Here is the same 100 year period in a log chart.

In this chart you can see how significant the drop in the late 20's and 30's really was. You can also see that the price rise in the last decade has not been quite as extreme as it looks in the linear chart.

One question we often get about these charts is about the 1987 crash. It doesn't show up on these charts, and many people think we have an error in our data or in the charts. Well, there isn't...the charts are accurate. This is a yearly chart that uses one value per year, which is the closing value of the Dow Jones Industrials on the last trading day of the year. At the end of 1986, the Dow closed at 1895.95. At the end of 1987, the Dow closed at 1938.83. The 1987 crash was devastating, but in that crash the market primarily gave up most of the gains that it had made earlier in the year. So on this yearly chart, it doesn't even show up.

Thursday, July 12, 2007

1940s

1940s Major Highlights

V1 flying bomb

German surrender

First Computer

Sound Barrier

United Nations Formed

FDR takes Oath

Iron Curtain

Italian Freedom

The Earnings brouhaha

This is what the report card numbers are expected to be......
Let us see what happens as the veil is tossed.

20070717 IIF
20070717 INTC
20070717 YHOO
20070718 JPM
20070719 AMD
20070719 BAC
20070719 BRCM
20070719 GOOG
20070719 MOT
20070719 MSFT
20070720 C
20070720 ERIC
20070720 SAY
20070724 LMT
20070725 AAPL
20070725 QCOM
20070727 IFX
20070731 ALU
2007081 DB
20070816 HPQ
2007082 NOK
20070830 DELL



SYMB ThisQ NextQ ThisY NextY
AAPL 0.73 0.82 3.54 4.11
ALU 0.04 0.18 0.45 0.86
AMD -0.83 -0.52 -2.60 -0.80
BAC 1.20 1.24 4.89 5.33
BRCM 0.18 0.20 0.88 1.12
C 1.14 1.13 4.52 5.08
CSC 0.74 0.89 4.23 4.61
DB 3.84 3.45 15.72 16.41
DELL 0.29 0.32 1.31 1.60
ERIC 0.63 0.60 2.66 2.91
GOOG 3.21 3.43 13.94 17.88
HPQ 0.65 0.76 2.77 3.13
IFX -0.09 0.01 0.11 0.55
INFY 0.44 0.48 1.97 2.50
INTC 0.19 0.27 1.08 1.35
JPM 1.09 1.05 4.49 4.75
LMT 1.50 1.51 6.30 6.69
MOT 0.02 0.09 0.31 0.88
MSFT 0.36 0.38 1.47 1.72
NOK 0.37 0.40 1.61 1.84
QCOM 0.49 0.44 1.80 1.99
SAI 0.21 0.23 0.85 0.93
SAY 0.31 0.32 1.22 1.47
TXN 0.42 0.48 1.77 2.12
YHOO 0.12 0.13 0.54 0.69