Friday, July 13, 2007

Crash of 1929

The 1929 Crash, like the 1987 Crash, was preceded by a market top in late summer. In 1929 the top came on September 4th. As in 1987, the new highs in late summer did not cause much hoopla. The market had been in a strong bull market for years and new highs were almost taken for granted. In fact, the 9/4/29 Wall Street Journal did not even mention the new highs in its "Abreast of the Market" column:

"Considerable profit taking came into the stock market at times yesterday after the triple holiday, but in most instances this supply was absorbed easily. New leaders were brought forward and attracted heavy buying..."

- Wall Street Journal, 9/4/29

Just as in 1987, the day after the top saw a very optimistic quote about the stock market's seeming inexorable advance in the Wall Street Journal:

Although sentiment generally is quite optimistic, it is noted that a large number of commission houses are strongly advising customers to take profits during advances in the stocks being carried. Similar recommendations in the past resulted in clients losing their long position and paying higher prices for their favorite shares, so that it is now admitted that many outsiders are not inclined to follow this advice at the moment. Many are looking for technical corrective reactions from time to time, but do not expect these to disturb the upward trend for any prolonged period.

- Wall Street Journal, 9/4/29

This was one time when those clients should have sold. The DJIA did not return to the 9/3/29 level until November, 1954.

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