Financial market consists on 2 groups of people. One that think the market is 100% efficient and the other which thinks it is completely random.
So who is right?
The truth is that the markets are complex and chaotic systems and their behavior contains both a efficient and a random component. Therefore we can make a realistic stock market forecast, although it is precise only to a certain extent.
Complex chaotic systems are vulnerable to minor changes (butterfly effect applies) causing a big perturbation in the system pushing it far away from its equilibrium. This is called the butterfly effect. So if anything small happens anywhere in the world the financial markets are usually the first ones to be affected.
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